(Too) Early Rookie Receiver Analysis

As this site has unintentionally become a page for draft analysis, primarily that of wide receivers, it’s only right to look back at the 2020 rookie receiver class and how they performed on the field. Below I have listed my biggest “Hits” and “Misses”.

That being said, the players listed are only obvious selections one way or the other. After one year it is unfair to grade out receivers with limited opportunities, and those that can be late bloomers at a tough position to make the NFL transition to. This would include receivers with disappointing, but promising rookie campaigns such as Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims.

Three years is industry standard for evaluating a draft class, therefore these rankings could be totally different in a couple years.

Hits

Justin Jefferson

Easily argued as the best rookie receiver in the 2020 season, Justin Jefferson is the biggest hit on my draft rankings. He was my second favorite player in the entire class, and with a little more stones, I might’ve placed him at 2 instead of 4 in my rankings. Jefferson seamlessly carried over his smooth route running and knack for creating separation. His athleticism critiques that lingered around before the combine have been silenced with his record breaking performance. Not only did he break Randy Moss’ Vikings rookie record, he broke Anquan Boldins all-time (Super Bowl era) record of 1,377 yards. He only needed 14 games to do it, too. Justin Jefferson appears to be set up for an impressive NFL career.

Michael Pittman

After a slow start and a gruesome injury in the middle of his season, Pittman Jr. returned to the Colts and helped jumpstart their offense. His rapport with Phillip Rivers grew throughout the season, and was inches away from being the playoff hero against Buffalo in their wildcard matchup (great throw Phil…).

6th in my rankings, Pittman Jr. showed big play ability in college through his elite size and strength. Those attributes shined through to the pro level as well. Though his touchdowns were low (1), his usage at the goal line was lower than expected for a 6’5″ receiver of his nature. The Colts offense can be to blame for some of that as well, opting to pound the rock or use one of their three skilled tight ends in the redzone. Next year could be huge for Pittman’s growing role, as TY Hilton and reliable Zach Pascal are unrestricted free agents. Although a new QB under center might take some time to build chemistry with the second year pro.

Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins slotted in as my seventh ranked receiver, and should have ended up even higher. Higgins impressed by posting the third most receptions, yards, and touchdowns among all rookies. He most likely would have finished second in all of those categories with a full 16 games of availability, and if Joe Burrow had not been lost for the season. After Burrows injury, Higgins had a noticeable drop off in targets, yards, and a significant loss in yards per catch.

Higgins great catch radius and redzone prowess transitioned well in the NFL, snagging six touchdowns. With a healthy Burrow and another year under his belt, Cincinnati has seemingly found a cornerstone weapon of the future. Drafted as the seventh receiver in 2020, Higgins proved he should have gone in the first round.

KJ Hamler and Lynn Bowden

KJ Hamler and Lynn Bowden are on the “Hit” list due to their draft position and relative payoff for their respective teams. Hamler, a second round pick for Denver, only produced 381 yards on 56 targets and a slim 12.7 yards per catch rating. The big play threat out of Penn State failed to translate that to the NFL. Drew Lock was inconsistent and injured, and Hamler spent a game trying to catch passes from a fellow receiver, but there was much more to be expected from someone as explosive as he was. 16th in the pre-draft rankings seems a little low, but fair considering he was the 10th receiver selected in 2020.

Lynn Bowden was similarly touted as Hamler, an explosive athlete that is a big play waiting to happen. Bowden was my 22nd ranked receiver, partly due to not having an actual position when entering the draft. Bowden was eventually taken in the third round by the Oakland Raiders. He was subsequently traded to the Dolphins before ever taking a snap with the Raiders. Bowden finally produced meaningful snaps from weeks 13 through 17, catching 27 passes for 212 yards. If he can turn into a solid third option in Miami with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and a likely 2021 rookie, he may end up being a better return than the 4th round pick they sent Oakland.

Honorable Mentions

Ceedee Lamb (ranked 2nd), Van Jefferson (Ranked 11th), Donavan Peoples-Jones (Ranked 14th), KJ Hill (Ranked 25th)

Misses

Chase Claypool

Here it is, the moment I eat my words and live down the shame of my biggest draft miss. The feeling of disappointment as a Steelers fan on draft night when Pittsburgh used their highest draft pick in 2020 to draft the receiver I criticized the most cannot be understated. Boy was I wrong. I should have immediately known this was going to be a miss, as the Steelers simply do not with evaluating receiver talent.

Chase Claypool was my 20th ranked receiver in the 2020 class. He ended up scoring nine touchdowns (first among rookies), caught 62 passes (fourth), and had 873 yards (fourth). He was often times the bright spot in a sputtering Pittsburgh offense down the stretch. I will say, Claypool excelled at the things I pointed out he did extremely well in college; a vertical receiver that is a redzone weapon. Claypool furthered that by enhancing his route tree and being a versatile option in the run game. I would love to see how his muscle mass to body fat ratio changed from college. Claypool looked like a completely different receiver in a Steelers jersey. That being said, Claypool looks like a sure fire top five receiver in this class.

Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk is one of, if not the most, explosive receiver in the 2020 class. He produced top five numbers in catches (60), yards (748) and touchdowns (5). He also added two rushing touchdowns through the creative use of Kyle Shanahan. Aiyuk is in the perfect system to excel, one that allows him to get the ball quickly in space and create YAC opportunities. Had he not missed four games with injury Aiyuk could have finished top three and maybe even surpassed Ceedee Lamb for second among all rookies in receiving stats. Brandon Aiyuk being the 11th ranked receiver on my board was a miss.

Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis could be argued as the biggest miss on my draft board slotting in at 23rd. Davis was a big play machine for the Bills high powered offense this season. Posting a ridiculous 17.1 yard per catch rating, Davis also caught seven touchdowns. He might have led all rookies in touchdowns had he been featured in the offense sooner than week 9. Davis huge frame, great hands, and body control has made him an outside threat for Josh Allen.

Davis’ numbers are a little misleading, however. Three or four of Gabriel Davis’ touchdowns could be considered defensive breakdowns, as opposed to Davis simply winning his matchup. Regardless, the man has produced at a number two receiver level and could be a nice complimentary piece to Stefon Diggs for years to come.

Jauan Jennings and Jalen Reagor

Jauan Jennings was my 15th ranked receiver due to his tenacity and ability to extend plays. He was drafted in the 7th round by the 49ers and floated around on their practice squad for most of the year, and was most recently signed to a futures contract by San Francisco. Jennings likely struggled to pick up the complex system of Shanahan’s, and was already a below average route runner. With a healthy Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, there will be limited chances to make the game day roster for Jennings.

Jalen Reagor simply was not on the same page of any Eagles quarterback this season. Riddled with injuries to start his rookie campaign, Reagor needs to start his second year off stronger than he finished 2020. With 31 catches for 396 yards and only one touchdown, Reagor failed to standout in one of the leagues worst position groups. Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson missed most of the season, only to return late and have a bigger role in this offense. With Justin Jefferson selected one pick after, Reagor is in the spotlight of being a major bust and regret of the Eagles front office. I had Reagor as the 5th best receiver pre-draft.

Honorable Mentions

Bryan Edwards (Ranked 10th), Devin Duvernay (12th Ranked),