Pirates sign Lonnie Chisenhall to one-year deal

On Monday, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall to a 1 year – $2.75 million deal with incentives increasing the contract value based on plate appearances and awards. Chisenhall has spent his first eight seasons with the Cleveland Indians posting a career major league slash line of .268/.320/.427.

This signing comes as a response to Gregory Polanco’s September shoulder injury, who realistically may not rejoin the team until mid-summer.

Chisenhall was once a highly touted prospect out of Pitt Community College. Starting his career at third base, Chisenhall has transitioned to the outfield over the past four seasons, complete with some time at first base.

Before I explore how he projects into the lineup for the Bucs and what kind of statistics to expect, his recent injury history is important to note. Chisenhall has been limited to just 111 games over the past two seasons due to a nagging right calf injury. Chisenhall has not appeared in a major league game since July 1st. This is disappointing especially after his solid 2016 season set him up to breakout over the next few years.

When healthy, Chisenhall figures in to be a middle of the lineup bat. He has largely produced a top 50 major league average (.278) and doubles (33), and top 70 numbers in hits (141), RBI (75), and OBP (.334).*

*These stats represent Chisenhall’s last 5 Major League seasons and his 162 game average stats from Baseball Reference.

I have two comparisons to offer, one being realistic expectations, and the other being a potential best-case scenario season for the Pirates, all things considered.

Realistic Expectation:

Below are two batting lines. The first is former Pittsburgh Pirate Matt Joyce’s 2016 season. The second is Chisenhall’s line from 2017. With a similar number of at bats, and a similar position and batting makeup, I believe this is a good starting point for expectations with Chisenhall.

 

While Matt Joyce was a platoon player off the bench for the Pirates in 2016, his solid production landed him a $5 million contract as a full-time outfielder for the Oakland Athletics. With such a small sample size from Lonnie Chisenhall, I am starting my expectations with a similar production to Joyce’s Pirates stint.

2017 Lonnie Chisenhall
PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
270	236	34	68	17	1	12	53	2	2	25	55	0.288	0.360	0.521	0.881

 

2016 Matt Joyce
PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
293	231	45	56	10	1	13	42	1	1	59	67	0.242	0.403	0.463	0.866

Best-Case Scenario:

Now when I say best case scenario, I really mean “Realistic Best-Case Scenario”. Because I’ll be honest, Chisenhall hitting .315 with 30 homeruns, and 100 RBI leading the Pirates to the World Series would be the best-case scenario.

Anyways, the best-case scenario for Lonnie Chisenhall’s 2019 season is a clean bill of health where he avoids a lengthy DL stint. If this happens, I think we can expect a similar return of Corey Dickerson from 2018. Below are Dickerson’s and Chisenhall’s last five seasons, with 162 game averages.

Corey Dickerson
PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
625	584	80	167	39	6	26	76	6	5	36	135	0.286	0.327	0.507	0.828

 

Lonnie Chisenhall
PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
561	507	63	141	33	4	14	75	6	2	40	102	0.278	0.334	0.434	0.768

While Chisenhall does not necessarily have the pop in his bat like Dickerson has shown, I believe Chisenhall could potentially return great value on the deal he signed. If he can post numbers that come anywhere near what he has shown he is capable of, the Pirates will at least continue the offensive production they saw with Polanco in the lineup in 2018. With Polanco sidelined for most of the season, he will have all the opportunity to prove himself.