Draft Analysis: Luther Burden III

January 25, 2025 /
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Weight: 211 lb
  • College: Missouri
  • Tape watched: Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Boston College, Kansas State
  • NFL Comparison: Hints of DJ Moore and Dashes of Deebo Samuel

Pros

  • RAC

Luther Burden shines with the ball in his hands. He has contact balance like a running back, shedding tackles with ease. He has elite level lateral agility as well. Burden led all receivers in Division I football with 30 Missed Tackles Forced. A creative mind like Ben Johnson, Sean McVay, or Kyle Shannahan could help Burden reach his NFL ceiling.

  • Hands

Burden finished the past two seasons with a cumulative sub-5% drop percentage and a contested catch percentage over 55%. For a receiver of his stature, the contested catch rate is very impressive. He looks like a comfortable, natural hand-catcher of the football. He displays good focus and body control.

Midline

  • Route Running

Too hot and cold, Burden displays high IQ route running at times, but his tempo can be uninspiring. He understands burst and changing speeds through his routes. He understands timing of plays and when he should be at a certain spot on the field.

Burden felt slow and overly-patient at times through his route stem. It looked like he was uninterested in the play or played himself out of the quarterback’s progressions with his tempo at times.

  • Release

Primarily playing in the slot and with a lot of  pre-snap motion, Burden was rarely challenged with press coverage. He climbs his stems against bump and run coverage with strong authority.

Cons

  • Route Tree

Burden’s usage and production was alarmingly exclusive to 10 yards and under. He had an average depth of target of 9 yards. For reference, below 10 yards ADOT generally does not predict great NFL results. Burden appeared to lack top end speed and route running to break open against elite college football talent.

  • Deep Speed

The lack of deep targets for Luther Burden likely plays into his lack of threatening speed. He never separated against deep man coverage and struggled to close on soft zone coverage downfield.

  • Versatility

Burden plays almost exclusively in the slot receiver position. Touting over an 80% slot snap percentage the last two seasons likely lands Burden in that position in the NFL. Teams have moved away from drafting elite level slot receivers in recent history, and high slot usage has not been a friendly stat indicator of NFL success over that same time period.

Overview

After a 2022 season that set the NCAA on fire, Luther Burden III regressed some. He saw his targets decrease by 40, his touchdowns cut by a third, and his receiving yards cut in half. With the improvements of quarterback Brady Cook, a major step back is something to note for Burden, who played in 14 games.

Burden is as explosive a receiver you can find in the 2025 draft, but he looks to be limited in his ability to impact an NFL offense. Burden is exceptional at the catch point. He will be elite at avoiding and breaking tackles. Burden likely will never be a consistent deep threat, instead relying on scheme and his after-catch abilities. A late first is likely warranted, betting on his special ability with the ball in his hand and the expected weak class. However, there are red flags on his tape and in his advanced metrics.