Draft Analysis: Josh Downs

December 20, 2022 /
  • Height: 5″9″
  • Weight: 180 lb
  • College: North Carolina
  • Tape Watched: Clemson, Florida A&M, Duke, Pitt
  • NFL Comparison: Emmanuel Sanders

Pros

  • Route Running
    Route running abilities are possibly the greatest upside of Josh downs. He has a natural feel for spacing and tempo. He is advanced in the way he attacks defenders positions. He can become too patient at the top of his routes, especially considering the great change of pace and burst he possesses. I suspect the NFL will ask him to speed his tempo up. Downs’ double moves are elite.
Downs is great with change of speed and lowering his hips. A great whip route here.
A less than ideal rep from Downs on this play. The linebacker successfully moves Downs almost completely out of the play. Downs needs a better plan of attack. He finishes the rep strong however.
  • Hands
    Downs has incredible hands and ball skills. As an undersized receiver, he makes similar plays to receivers four inches taller and 25 pounds heavier. Contact at the catch point does not faze Downs. He took his helping of hard hits and caught every ball thrown near him. He shows great awareness on the sidelines as well.
Downs ability to track and high point the football are something to covet in April.
  • Versatility
    Josh Downs offers teams positional versatility with his ability to line up at all three receiver positions. He was also a successful punt returner at UNC. He may not have the size of a true X receiver, but his route running and quickness may be able to overcome height and weight.
  • Quickness
    Downs may be a combine darling with his explosion metrics. He has a unique burst through route breaks and any time he decides to change direction. He teaches a master class in separation.

Midline

  • Release
    Downs’ release can be really lethal at times, but also fails to be a strong point other times. He can false step out of free releases, and not press vertically on off coverage, tipping his route to the defense.

Cons

  • Blocking
    There isn’t much to offer from the run game. Downs most often lines up on the perimeter for run plays. There was not a lot to witness in terms of successful stalking and driving in the blocking game. Downs will give effort, however.
  • RAC
    Think of Diontae Johnson when you watch Josh Downs after the catch. He has a smoothness to him with how he runs, but his stopping power is seriously lacking. If he doesn’t burst away right after the catch, he opts to dive for extra yards and avoid contact. NFL teams probably wouldn’t want their 5’10” receiver taking unnecessary hits, anyways.
  • Top End Speed
    Downs has a 4.47s 40-yard dash on the books from high school. Common sense would expect a D1 strength and conditioning program to improve the numbers, regardless of how marginally. The tape doesn’t suggest game changing speed however. Downs isn’t a strider that eats up turf with every foot strike. He has a compact running style that benefits his short area, but can be lacking downfield. Downs’ big plays come almost exclusively from double moves and the separation he creates underneath coverages.

Overview

Josh Downs has the look and feel of a top receiver in this year’s draft. The NFL has started to move towards route runners and short area quickness, as opposed to big-bodied receivers that win by brute force. Downs checks the recent bias box in that regard. He could be an elite route runner in the NFL with hands that swallow up every target. There is a Garrett Wilson/Jahan Dotson feel of the 2022 NFL draft with Downs.