Catching Fire: Too Late?
Sunday’s extra inning nail biter capped off a six-game winning streak for the Pirates. Even better, it totaled their eighth win in nine games. It also reversed the recent misfortune of their five game losing streak against the Dodgers and Phillies.
Okay, so they’re technically the hottest team in baseball entering the All-Star break. Does this REALLY mean anything?
Sort-of. It means that this is the same Pirates construct we have all grown to admire the past six years. The team is never out of a baseball game (yes, I remember they gave up 17 runs twice in four days). What this admirable trait has brought them over the years consists of close games, memorable walk-offs, and competitive seasons.
This year, however, is slightly different.
The Pirates still find themselves below .500 entering the break. They are 48-49, nine games back from first place in the NL Central and 5.5 back from the ever familiar Wild Card game.
Could the Pirates stay hot after the break and find themselves back in the playoff hunt? Absolutely.
Could the Pirates continue their winning streak after the break facing the Reds and Mets in seven of their next ten games? Absolutely.
The problem both scenarios lie with is the team’s roster outlook for the rest of this season, and seasons to come. Francisco Cervelli isn’t getting younger, and he sure isn’t becoming more durable with age. Corey Dickerson isn’t a lifelong Bucco. The starting rotation is void of a true number one, and quite possibly number two MLB level starter right now. Any bullpen assembled with Tyler Glasnow and Michael Feliz can be labeled inconsistent at best. There is not one bat through the Pirates lineup that opposing pitchers fear. The list goes on with reasons why the Pirates aren’t true World Series contenders.
For this reason, the Pirates should be sellers at the non-waiver trade deadline come July 31st.
Before the deadline approaches, some moves the Pirates should consider:
Francisco Cervelli:
While concussions and catchers may have the ring of a great garage band name, the two do not mix well in baseball. Cervelli immediately brings great veteran leadership behind the plate and in the clubhouse to a contending team. He is a great game manager and is one of the most consistent bats in the Pirates’ lineup. His .839 OPS would rank 2nd among catchers if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
While Cervelli is certainly a fan favorite, the Pirates should listen to offers for the 32-year-old catcher.
Josh Harrison:
JHay, much like Cervelli, has become a fan-favorite over the past couple seasons. His work ethic and high motor certainly play well for a contending team. He brings energy and leadership into a clubhouse. Also in the same injury boat as Cervelli, not only would it be impossible to trade Harrison if he finds himself on the DL following a mid-game exit from Sundays exhibition, his stats are down from his perennial slash line. However, when healthy and a regular in the lineup, Harrison finds ways to get on base. He is sound defensively as well.
While he was never going to live up to the outrageous contract the Pirates signed him to in 2015, he is still a solid addition on both sides of the diamond. If they can grab a prospect if his injury isn’t serious, it would be a wise decision to part ways with the player who hinted at such at the start of the season.
Corey Dickerson:
Arguably the best bat in the lineup for the Pirates this year, Corey Dickerson is the best offensive trade chip the Bucs have outside of Starling Marte right now. Dickerson is batting .306/.340/.809 which is good for fourth best among all left fielders in the Major League. He is fifth in hits (99), first in triples (5), and third in strikeouts (44). Dickerson can easily be added to any contending lineup and give teams an offensive injection.
Felipe Vazquez:
While this is literally painful to write, Vazquez is the greatest trade chip the Pirates possess. A left-handed closer who frequently touches 100+ mph fastballs, a devastating slider, and an elite changeup, who occasionally has command issues, sound familiar?
The exact point of including Vazquez in this article is to make the argument that he may command 80-90% of what Aroldis Chapman’s yield with the Yankees. The main return in this trade, shortstop Gleyber Torres, quickly became the number one prospect in baseball, and is currently starting for the Yankees. The Yanks also received Adam Warren (1.85 ERA, 10.7 SO/9) and Billy McKinney (Yankees 16th ranked prospect per MLB.com) in that trade.
To make things more interesting, Aroldis Chapman was a guaranteed, one-year rental for the Cubs. He had one year left on his contract at the time and resigned with the Yankees the following season in free agency.
Felipe Vazquez is signed through the 2023 season (two club options in 2022 and 2023) and will not make more than $6 million until 2021. For reference, Chapman currently commands almost three times the salary at $17 million per year. So, a team trading for Vazquez not only gets a huge closer or back-end bullpen arm for one year, they control him through his prime.
If Vazquez could land the Pirates a top prospect and some mid-level guys, the Pirates could find themselves at the top of the division in a few years. Is it better to control one of the best closers in baseball on a team that isn’t ready to contend, or is it worth trading him for a top prospect to lead the teams minor league system, assuming management makes a fair trade?
While this past week has been fun, the next few will shape not only the rest of the season, it creates a foundation for the future as a whole.
