2018 MLB Predictions
Baseball is in an admittedly bad period of time to try and make any fun predictions. Big market teams have always had the ability to outspend smaller ones, and now they spend money smarter too. Analytic advantages that smaller market teams have been able to exploit in the past are well known to every team in the league, and huge spenders like the Cubs and Dodgers also have some of the smartest and innovative front offices, and, not to mention, the largest payrolls.
In addition, the idea of tanking seasons in order to build through the draft is more popular and accepted than ever, leaving leagues with very little teams that occupy the middle class. It’s either go big or go home and that doesn’t exactly make for exciting prognosticating.
With baseball season slated to this week, we decided to breakdown each division and offer a variety of opinions on each team. Below is our thoughts on each division winner, and the projected wildcard teams. We’ll then give our playoff predictions and our favorite to walk away with the The Commissioner’s Trophy.
AL East
Kevin Gardner
Winner: Yankees
The division is the Yankees to lose. This is one of the deepest lineups in baseball. With the addition of Giancarlo Stanton to a lineup that hit a league leading, and 16th most in history, homeruns in 2017, the Yankees may just hit the all-time record 264.
The rotation should be solid hinging on healthy production from 37 year old CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and Sonny Gray. Leading the way will be 24 year old flamethrower Luis Severino. Look for Severino to further solidify himself among the top aces in the Majors.
The bullpen should be as dominant as their lineup. Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle might construct the best late inning quartet in all of baseball.
The Red Sox will challenge the Yankees for the AL East with their own solid outfield featuring 2016 MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and newly added power hitter DH J.D. Martinez.
If David Price can find his groove and Rick Porcello returns to his Cy Young form, the Red Sox could very well win this division. Look for them to host the AL wildcard game.
Mike Nolte
Winner: Yankees
The AL East is the race that is the most intriguing to me on paper. The Yankees and Red Sox have plenty of people who will root against them, but their rivalry is essential to the history of baseball and the sport is just more fun when they are battling it out. Both teams loaded up in the off-season, acquiring the two best hitters on the free agent market with trade acquisition Giancarlo Stanton heading to the Yankees and free agent J.D. Martinez heading to the Red Sox.
In the end, I can’t get past the idea of Judge, Stanton, and Gary Sanchez hitting in the 2, 3, and 4 spots. There’s a lot of injury risk there, but holy crap; that’s terrifying.
The Red Sox might be a touch deeper overall, but the Yankees have a higher ceiling.
Kevin Riley
Winner: Yankees
Despite the additions that their arch-rival Boston Red Sox made, the Bronx Bombers are primed to win the East. In 2017, this club paced the league with 241 home runs. On December 9, they added the best pure power bat in the game in Giancarlo Stanton, the trade that began the Marlins salary dump. Roster hangovers from last year like Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, along with Stanton, should be bombarding the bleachers in the very home-run friendly Yankee Stadium.
As for the pitching staff, they too should be solid once again. Despite the potent offenses in the American League East (850 combined home runs between BOS, TOR, TB, & BAL) the Yankees finished 2017 with a 3.77 ERA — fifth best in the Majors. A full season from CC Sabathia, who made just 27 starts last season, will be key as well as a return to form for Masahiro Tanaka after a disastrous 2017. Luis Severino should enjoy a another strong season after finishing third in the Cy Young voting, although he was subpar in four starts during the American League playoffs in October.
This division seems to have returned to its early 2000’s hierarchy with the Red Sox and Yankees battling for supremacy and the Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles struggling to keep up. Anything short of a division title and at the very least, ALCS appearance, will be a letdown for the revamped Yanks.
AL Central
Kevin Gardner
Winner: Indians
Still in a weak division, the Indians should walk away with the division once again in 2018. The Twins made a lot of solid off-season moves that should at the very least have Cleveland looking over their shoulder.
Cleveland offers a top five rotation that features perennial Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, MVP candidates Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor, and a bullpen that is still solid despite losing two of their top arms.
If Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar figure it out this year, the Indians could find themselves making a deep playoff run.
Mike Nolte
Winner: Indians
I don’t think this one will be particularly close, although I’ll give the Twins some love as one of the only middle class teams that really tried to get better in the offseason.
They traded for Jake Odorizzi, signed Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn, and although it only lasted for about four hours, they did make the playoffs last year.
On the other hand, the Indians have a deep offense and potentially the best rotation in all of baseball. If Corey Kluber is healthy he’s a Cy Young finalist. Carlos Carrasco is perennially underrated. Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer each have near ace level potential. Even fifth starter Mike Clevinger put together a very nice rookie campaign with a good ERA and a nice strikeout rate.
The Twins are on the rise but don’t have enough to compete just yet.
Kevin Riley
Winner: Indians
It will be interesting to see how the team responds after blowing a 2-0 lead in the best of five series against the aforementioned Yankees. Terry Francona’s club has now lost six straight elimination games dating back to Game 5 of the 2016 World Series.
Guys like MVP candidate Francisco Lindor, slugger Edwin Encarnacion, and a bounce back year from Jason Kipnis will anchor the lineup.
The pitching staff will be manned by reigning — and two time — Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber and expect to see another strong year from Carlos Carrasco. Trevor Bauer is primed to have a full season of dominant pitching after having a tremendous second half last year. Paired with a strong bounce back from an injury-riddled season from Danny Salazar gives way to a big boost for the team.
The bullpen will, of course, be led by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.
All that being said, expect the Indians to run away with a weak Central Division for the third straight year.
AL West
Kevin Gardner
Winner: Astros
I believe the Astros will be the first team to repeat as World Series Champions since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 – 2000. Simply put, this team has no weaknesses.
Their rotation was set Sunday by manager as follows: Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr, Gerrit Cole, and Charlie Morton. If an injury occurs, they have depth in bullpen arms Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh.
As for the bullpen, they added the Indians’ Mr. Consistency in Joe Smith in addition to Hector Rondon this offseason. They will join set up man Will Smith and closer Ken Giles.
The Astros lineup not only offers the elite production needed to win back-to-back World Series, it has a unique flexibility that most clubs do not have.
Utility man Marwin Gonzalez, 3B/SS Alex Bregman, and 3B/1B Yuli Gurriel are capable of playing multiple infield positions. All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa is also able to play second or third. In the outfield, Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Reddick play both corner positions, while rookie Derek Fisher and George Springer can play all three outfield spots.
Pair this flexibility with 2018 MVP Jose Altuve at second base and this team is still head and shoulders above the rest of the Major League.
AL Wildcards: Red Sox and Angels
I believe the Angels is a bit of a gamble, so I’ll explain. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. When he is in the lineup he gives the Angels the chance to win every game. With the addition of Shohei Ohtani in the rotation (I don’t think he can hit in the Majors), and Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart to the lineup, they are primed for a playoff push.
Mike Nolte
Winner: Astros
The Astros are the most well rounded team in baseball. They’ve got the defending AL MVP in Jose Altuve, talented young offensive pieces like Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, and a rotation so deep that they can afford to throw potentially above average starters like Brad Peacock and Chris Devinski into middle reliever/fireman roles where they can kill any mid game rally you can think of mounting. They added Gerrit Cole this offseason and basically lost nothing from their championship winning roster. The defending champs are so deep the pieces in the Cole trade wouldn’t have even contributed this year or most likely at any point in the future either. They’ll win the most games in either league this regular season.
AL Wildcards: Red Sox and Angels
I’ve already touched on one of my Wildcard picks, the Red Sox. I do think their depth on offense and Chris Sale is enough for them to make it to the post season. Look out for pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez to have a nice year too. He’s a guy whose always had potential and has apparently pitched for years with pain in his knees. He had offseason surgery and finally appears to be at one hundred percent.
I’m picking the Angels as my second wildcard because Mike Trout is the best player of the 21st century (depending on how you feel about Barry Bonds). He’ll win another AL MVP this year and Justin Upton is the best hitting compliment he’s had since Albert Pujols’ body started breaking down. Ian Kinsler was a nice pickup who’s due for a bounce back season.
They also added the most intriguing foreign player in baseball history: Shohei Ohtani. He will be the first true two way player since some guy named Babe Ruth. Ohtani hasn’t looked good at either position this spring, but it’s important to note that he’s younger than most rookies that come into the league at 23, and that he’s trying to adjust to double the work any other player has as well. Don’t jump the gun on declaring him a bust. Even if he doesn’t ever hit well enough to be impactful, his floor is still that of a very good pitcher.
Kevin Riley
Winner: Astros
There does not need to be much said about this team. What more can be said? They blew a 2-1 lead in the 2015 ALDS against the eventual champion Royals, they underperformed in 2016, and then in 2017 the front office went for it and eventually won it all in seven games against the Los Angeles Dodgers – fulfilling Sports Illustrated’s prediction from 2014. This team could very easily repeat such a performance in 2018.
The Astros are young and talented, steered by a core that should be together for a long time. Led by their 5’6” second baseman Jose Altuve (200+ hits every season since 2014), power-hitting-leadoff-man George Springer, and 2015 Rookie of the Year shortstop Carlos Correa, veterans Brian McCann and Evan Gattis, and young third baseman Alex Bregman, this team should have a potent offense once again in 2018. In 2017 they led the Majors in runs scored (896), Onbase+Slugging Percentage – OPS – (.823) and were second only to the New York Yankees in home runs with 238. In a hitter-friendly yard, like Minute Maid Park, look for these numbers to be repeated.
As for the pitching staff, they have as formidable a top three as anyone in the game. Between Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, and newcomer from the Pirates, Gerrit Cole, this staff boasts two Cy Young awards, nine All Star selections, and an MVP award. The pressure will be on Cole to bounce back from two sub-par years in 2016-17 with Pittsburgh and return to his 2015 form. If he can this will be the toughest team to match up against once October baseball arrives.
This squad is one of the most talented all-around clubs the game has seen in a long time, with virtually no holes from top-to-bottom and look for them the take advantage of that as they attempt to repeat as World Series Champions.
AL Wildcards: Red Sox and Twins
The Minnesota Twins made a handful of very interesting and useful moves and they should be able to compete for an American League Wild Card spot, but do not expect them to challenge the Indians as they look for redemption from an ugly finish to 2017. Another motivating factor for this stacked ball-club is that if they do not raise the Commissioner’s Trophy in October, it will be 70 years since the organization last won – now the longest streak of infamy in the league. They are still talented enough to do it, so look for them to be a force this upcoming season.
NL East
Kevin Gardner
Winner: Nationals
This division is pretty clear-cut. The Mets lack the offense to compete with the Nationals, and that is before diving into their injury plagued pitching staff. The Phillies have started to retool and leave the rebuilding phase, with the additions of Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.
The Nationals have a proven closer to start the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings with Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, and Sean Doolittle.
Their rotation offers two potential Cy Young candidates in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and their lineup is even deadlier.
Led by Bryce Harper, the Nationals have one of the deepest lineups in baseball, featuring rising stars Trea Turner and Michael Taylor, veterans Ryan Zimmerman and Howie Kendrick, and slugger Anthony Rendon.
Mike Nolte
Winner: Nationals
The Nationals could potentially have the best one-two punch of starting pitching in all of baseball with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and they could have one of the best offenses in baseball with Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, and Bryce Harper… as long as they can stay healthy.
They’ve remade their bullpen in recent seasons and have two players who are equally capable of closing in — Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.
The Braves and Phillies have young talent in the minors, but this division still belongs to Washington. I’m picking Harper to win NL MVP and Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna to win Rookie of the Year.
Kevin Riley
Winner: Nationals
Will this finally be the year that the Washington Nationals break out of their playoff nightmare? For their sake, it better be with Bryce Harper slated to hit free agency this offseason. I am skeptical given their track record, but they should have no problem locking up their third straight division title, and fifth since 2012.
As for the team they will once again have one of the best pitching staffs in the league led by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez who enjoyed a very good bounce back season in 2017 after his dreadful 2016 campaign. The Nationals’ issue for much of 2017 was the bullpen, but they improved that with midseason acquisitions Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, who were dominate once acquired.
Behind five-time All Star and former MVP Bryce Harper, the squad has one of the top second basemen in the National League in Daniel Murphy, who is coming off back-to-back Silver Slugger Award winning seasons since signing with the team in the winter of 2015-16. Younger guys like centerfielder Michael Taylor and speedy shortstop Trea Turner will make this a dangerous and deep lineup once again, especially if outfielder Adam Eaton is able to return to form after tearing his ACL after one month last year.
NL Central
Kevin Gardner
Winner: Cubs
If the Brewers could have bolstered the starting rotation, I may have just picked them to upset the Cubs. But the fact is, the Cubs are average at worst at every spot on the field. No one else in this division can say they lack glaring weaknesses.
If Brandon Morrow can effectively close out games, and they relatively stay healthy, the Cubs should win this division.
Their rotation is six deep with the additions of Tyler Chatwood and Yu Darvish. The lineup started to catch fire during the end of the regular season, and they just may start off 2018 in the same fashion.
I’ve learned to never count the Cardinals out of anything, so here is my statement saying the Cardinals find their way into the playoffs. They are as consistent as it gets as a franchise.
Mike Nolte
Winner: Cubs
The Cubs had a “down” year in 2017 and still won 92 games and the division. An early season slump could have been chalked up to a championship hangover, but don’t expect that this year.
The pitching is deep although not spectacular, the hitting is both young and deep, and they have experience on the biggest stage.
The bullpen could be a potential weak spot. Brandon Morrow is probably one of the weakest closers among any of these division winners, but they do have Carl Edwards Jr. ready to step in. He’s been nothing but impressive in his short major league career thus far.
Kevin Riley
Winner: Cubs
Not much will change here in the Central as the Cubs should win their third straight division title. The Cardinals will continue hanging around and could challenge them after their offseason moves, and the Brewers have a real chance to be a thorn in the side of the Cubs after really enhancing their team, but ultimately the Chicago will win the division.
They lost a team leader in Jake Arrieta but they maintain a good pitching staff. Led by holdovers Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Hendricks they added Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood. Their staff will hand their leads over to a bullpen that features closer Brandon Morrow, who will be preceded by Pedro Strop, the lanky Carly Edwards Jr., and the lefthanded midseason acquisition Justin Wilson, who will look to put a poor second half showing behind him.
The runs will be delivered by an offense that in 2017 was top 7 in runs and slugging percentage. The still very young and dangerous roster will be led by 2017 Roberto Clemente Award winner Anthony Rizzo. The rest of the lineup holds former MVP Kris Bryant, a slimmed down Kyle Schwarber, flashy infielder Javier Baez, Ian Happ, and behind the plate they have Willson Contreras.
The Cubs will win the division again and despite a better NL central this year. They are the best team top-to-bottom in the division.
NL West
Kevin Gardner
Winner: Dodgers
I believe this division may be the closest in all of baseball. With the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies all making the playoffs last year, history may repeat itself.
The Dodgers only real question is the bullpen. Outside of Kenley Jansen, there lacks consistent arms to keep leads until he takes the mound.
The lineup is world class, although the injury to Justin Turner may cause a wrinkle early, and the rotation is still led by the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. They need to find consistency from Kenta Maeda and a string of good health from Rich Hill and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Young guns Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger will continue to get better, which is a scary thought.
NL Wildcard: Rockies and Cardinals
The Rockies offense and Cardinals consistency land them in the Wildcard game.
Nolan Arenado might be the best position player in the MLB that isn’t named Mike Trout. Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez will lead this team into the postseason.
With the Cardinals addition of Marcel Ozuna and the ability to plug and play players at the drop of a hat, the Cards will host the NL Wildcard game.
Mike Nolte
Winner: Dodgers
The Dodgers won the NL West last year and look to finish the same in this one. Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher in baseball when healthy, although his health has proven unreliable.
Health is an issue for Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda as well, but the Dodgers were as active as anyone in the league last year in taking advantage of the new shorter DL length. Combined with Alex Wood they have the best overall rotation in the National League and a solid enough offense to win this division without much trouble.
NL Wildcard: Cardinals and Diamondbacks
The Cardinals are my first wildcard choice because, well, they’re the Cardinals, and they’re just always infuriatingly good. Last year they had three solid hitters develop from seemingly nowhere in Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, and Jose Martinez.
In the offseason they added outfielder Marcel Ozuna from Miami as well. The thing that will carry them is their pitching. Carlos Martinez is a true ace, and Michael Wacha is a player I fully expect to have a breakout season. They also have two young studs in Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver. Weaver went 7-2 in his rookie season last year with fantastic underlying stats and Reyes is the former top pitching prospect in all of baseball, who had Tommy John surgery at the beginning of last season. Whenever they can work him back into game action he could be a supremely overqualified middle reliever or a potential shutdown closer.
My second wild card pick was the toughest decision of any to make.
I think that the Phillies are going to surprise a lot of people with their young talent but they are still a little too far away. Their signing of Jake Arrietta clearly says they think they are ready right now though.
The Brewers are a team on the way up, but they definitely overachieved last year and they really needed to add some type of starting pitching in the offseason, which they did not do.
In the end I’m choosing the Diamondbacks and not feeling great about it. Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke are a formidable top of the rotation and they have a consistent top five MVP candidate in Paul Goldschmidt.
The addition of a humidor to Chase Field to suppress some of the offensive numbers could do some weird things to the team, but it should help their pitching as much as it hurts their hitting, so in theory, at least, it should balance out.
Kevin Riley
Winner: Dodgers
The Dodgers are looking to get back to, and win the World Series, after finally making it back to the Fall Classic last October, before falling in the seventh game to Houston.
The Dodger’s pitching staff, like the Nationals, is dominate. Atop the rotation is the best regular season pitcher of this generation: Clayton Kershaw. If he can put together a full healthy season this year, he will easily win his fourth Cy Young Award and first since his MVP season of 2014. Alex Wood, Julio Urias, and Kenta Maeda follow behind Kershaw and should all be dominating again. Kenley Jansen, who has averaged 42 saves since the start of 2014, will be closing games once again for the club.
On the offensive side, the team took some bad news as NLCS MVP Justin Turner suffered a broken left wrist last week on a hit by pitch. Although the third baseman will not need surgery, he is obviously expected to miss some time. That being said, their lineup still consists of young studs Corey Seager, and National League Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger. Yasiel Puig enjoyed arguably his best season since his electrifying rookie season of 2013. Veterans Chase Utley and reunited Matt Kemp will be expected to contribute leadership to the club as well as try to fill in some of the offense that the team will be missing in Turner’s injured absence.
There will be big expectations as always for the Dodgers, but this year will come with the most expectations of all. After failing to secure the World Series title last season, they will be expected to win the NL Pennant again this year.
NL Wildcard: Giants and Brewers
Had I written this piece two weeks ago, I might have said that the Giants would surprisingly take this division crown with the veterans they acquired this winter. With the injury news that they received about Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija, their rotation is now in questionable health and it will interesting to see how that impacts them down the road.
World Series Champion
Kevin Gardner
Winner: Astros
For the same reasons I picked them to win their division, I believe the Astros repeat as champions. In fact, I expect a World Series repeat of last year, with the Dodgers falling to the Astros. Their depth and consistency will be too much to match from any AL team. If the Astros are to lose the World Series, it will come in the AL playoffs.
Mike Nolte
Winner: Astros
In a scenario where every prediction feels so boring I really don’t want to pick the same team that won the World Series last year, but I think the Astros’ overall depth is just too much to pick against. They have seemingly less injury risk than any other top team I would choose, and the ability to withstand injuries better than any other top team too. In the fall of 2018 I think we will be watching the first repeat champions in baseball since the Yankees in 1999 and 2000.
Kevin Riley
Winner: Astros
The two most complete teams are the ones that we saw in a great World Series last year. After an offseason that featured very little turnover and a slow free agent market, I expect that the Dodgers and the Astros will meet again in the final series of 2018. I have got Astros in 6, as their rotation is more complete than the Dodgers with better pedigree and the lineup is a threat from the leadoff man through the nine spot. Houston will go back-to-back.
Hopefully this season proves to be less cut and dry than it appears to be. All three of us unanimously picked the same division winners. However, baseball is a game of breaks, whether your’e on the good side, or the tough side of them. Teams ride streaks, good and bad, as well, and the playoff picture could look completely different come October.
